Premiership/Champs 28/29 Nov

Weekend 24-27th November

Premiership Analysis-I like goals in the West Ham/Leicester and the Palace/Stoke games.Some poor defences on show plus apart from Palace`s,the other sides have very good conversion rates.
Swansea and Bournemouth boast poor shots on target figures,so I dont see many goals there.
Obvious wins seem likely for Man Utd,Man City and Spurs.

 Championship Analysis-Middlebrough look a little bit of value here,nicely ahead on ELO ratings & boast the best shots on target against ranking,up against an attack that are 2nd worst,Derby may struggle to break them down.
Burton and Sunderland have awful defensive rankings and with over 4 goals expected,looks a good bet on the over goals and Both teams to score markets.
I would expect Barnsley and Leeds to share a few goals while the same could be said at Hull v Bristol City.
Wolves and Sheff Utd look nailed on winners.

La Liga Analysis-Not a great deal of value on show.Sociedad should win but are a tight price while Betis/Girona should have goals.

Serie A Analysis-Sassuolo and Verona sees 2 sides with some awful attacking rankings meeting.The goals expectancy backs this up and getting involved in the low goals markets should pay dividends.
Roma and Napoli are certs for any acca.

Championship 21/22 Nov

Analysis-Various games with potential goals in,as shown by the orange coloured boxes in the Total goals section with possibly the best looking one between Millwall and Hull.
Millwall have good attacking rankings combined with ordinary defensive ones while Hull can normally grab a goal but often concede as well.
Sheff Utd continually seem to be underrated by the bookies and although Fulham(at their best) are a good side,they arent in great nick at present.Current form,Elo`s and goals expectancy all side with the home side as well.
Bristol City host a Preston side that look to have lost their way.The away side have the 2nd worst Elo pts gained in the last 6 games(In the blue box) whilst City are in good form at present.

Week Nov 18th-21st

Premiership Analysis-Very little in the way of value in this weeks Premierships matches.
The closest to a strong selection(but not on value) would be Burnley v Swansea under 2.5 goals.
Goals expectancy has it under 2 and the team rankings really back it up.Burnley are in the bottom 5 of both offensive ranks but in the top 5 for defensive conversion ratings while Swansea are surprisingly in the top 5 defensive rankings away from home.

Championship Analysis-Sheff Utd appeal as a decent price based on the chart above.In good recent form and they strongly outperform Burton on Elo`s.
Goal expectancy backs it up by over 2 goals supremacy and Burton are in the bottom of every ranking.
Birmingham continue to be a team to take on.....in woeful form and bottom of shots on target,they do find creating and scoring difficult and although Forest are not the most reliable side around,they are in decent nick at present.They come out 2nd best in the league for shots on target and I would definitely have them favourites as it may only take one goal to win this.

La Liga Analysis-I like goals in the Malaga v Deportivo match.Total goals has it at 3.7 and both sides are ranked 8th for shots on target.
Bilbao v Villareal looks a fair shout for a low scoring draw.Elo`s have it very tight ,as does goals expectancy whileboth sides are in the bottom 3 for shots on target plus have good defensive rankings for conversion rates.

Analysis-Roma v Lazio should be a fair game between 2 good sides but the current price available on the home side looks too big to me.Ive got it at 10/11 so odds against quotes are decent.
Udinese are not in the greatest of form at present but come out well on many other figures against Cagliari.Goals expectancy have them over 1 1/2 goals superior and that bodes well against a side that are the 2nd worst for having chances converted against them.
Crotone and Genoa looks a dull affair and various poor attacking rankings suggest goals may be a premium.With neither side in for more than 0.6 goals then betting against both teams to score could pay dividends.
The games at Sampdoria and Inter Milan should have goals in them but the prices are right.

Week Nov3rd-6th

Analysis-Barnsley stand out as the best value in this league,Nicely clear on ELO`s & in decent form against an opponent,that isn`t.Over a goal superior on Goals expectancy means I have it priced at 4/6(In green),so therefore quotes of around 6/4 are pretty attractive.
Sheff Utd have impressive rankings(In top 10 in 3 categories) against a side that cannot stop conceding & are the 2nd worst team in the last 3 games for ELO points gained.I would have the home side around the 4/7 mark.
QPR should be favs at Forest ,according to my figures but the goals expected pinpoints a very tight game.
Who knows what a change of manager will do for Sunderland but on the data available,they will struggle at Boro although there is enough evidence to suggest they could grab a goal,I would expect over 2.5 goals.

Analysis-Best bet in La Liga looks to be goals at Sociedad,the home side are the 2nd best side on ELO`s over the last 3 games and face an opponent who are 2nd worst over the last 6 but have stopped the rot a little recently.With both sides in for well over 1 goals each and both sides in the bottom two for conceding converted shots on target,it should be a lively game.

Analysis-Genoa v Sampdoria should contain some goals,Total goals is well over 4 & both sides are expected to contribute.

Other games to note,Lazio-Inter-Napoli should all win but are priced accordingly.

Analysis-Other than goals at West Ham and Man City (Priced accordingly),the best value I can see is Newcastle to beat Bournemouth,although I normally like a selection to be in for around 2 goals expected,the home side have enough going for them to warrant a bet.They are superior on every ranking and face a team without a top 10 ranking in any category.

Championship Oct31

Analysis- Fulham/Bristol City looks likely to have goals but both the overs and BTTS markets are pretty tight....
Barnsley appeal as a bit of value away to Burton, they have the edge on ELO`s & goals expectancy plus they have the 5th best attack for shots on target away from home. Up against a defence that generally struggles, I am surprised they aren`t favs.
Brentford`s price also surprises me but this is a game that I do not see many goals.Birmingham have the worst record in the division for shots on target at home but also have the best record for not conceding chances against them, therefore I would be worried backing them although maybe trading a 0-1 scoreline, may pay dividends.
Sheff Wed /Millwall looks destined to be a tight affair with few goals around.Millwall have the worst conversion rate away from home but combine that with the best defensive conversion record, the home side have a goals expectancy of just 0.9 and the unders market looks fair value.
Hull have the best records for shots on target and for converting them but sit in the lower half for stopping their opponents doing the same and with Middlesbrough in the top 6 for SOT ,then BTTS looks a solid bet,with the goals expectancy backing this up.

Week Oct 27-30