Thursday, 16 November 2017

Week Nov 18th-21st

Premiership Analysis-Very little in the way of value in this weeks Premierships matches.
The closest to a strong selection(but not on value) would be Burnley v Swansea under 2.5 goals.
Goals expectancy has it under 2 and the team rankings really back it up.Burnley are in the bottom 5 of both offensive ranks but in the top 5 for defensive conversion ratings while Swansea are surprisingly in the top 5 defensive rankings away from home.

Championship Analysis-Sheff Utd appeal as a decent price based on the chart above.In good recent form and they strongly outperform Burton on Elo`s.
Goal expectancy backs it up by over 2 goals supremacy and Burton are in the bottom of every ranking.
Birmingham continue to be a team to take woeful form and bottom of shots on target,they do find creating and scoring difficult and although Forest are not the most reliable side around,they are in decent nick at present.They come out 2nd best in the league for shots on target and I would definitely have them favourites as it may only take one goal to win this.

La Liga Analysis-I like goals in the Malaga v Deportivo match.Total goals has it at 3.7 and both sides are ranked 8th for shots on target.
Bilbao v Villareal looks a fair shout for a low scoring draw.Elo`s have it very tight ,as does goals expectancy whileboth sides are in the bottom 3 for shots on target plus have good defensive rankings for conversion rates.

Analysis-Roma v Lazio should be a fair game between 2 good sides but the current price available on the home side looks too big to me.Ive got it at 10/11 so odds against quotes are decent.
Udinese are not in the greatest of form at present but come out well on many other figures against Cagliari.Goals expectancy have them over 1 1/2 goals superior and that bodes well against a side that are the 2nd worst for having chances converted against them.
Crotone and Genoa looks a dull affair and various poor attacking rankings suggest goals may be a premium.With neither side in for more than 0.6 goals then betting against both teams to score could pay dividends.
The games at Sampdoria and Inter Milan should have goals in them but the prices are right.

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