Thursday, 31 May 2018


I have been asked to produce something that makes my football ratings easier to understand. I am so used to them now that I assume everybody can see what they mean. Hopefully the following will make things clearer.


-Elo ratings concern the left-hand side of the chart. They use a points distribution system in which before the fixture, the home side put 7% of their total points into a pot along with 5% of the away sides.
-I then produce a match rating, taking into consideration not just the result but also shots and shots on target. Depending on the match rating, a mathematical equation then produces a new set of numbers, which will then make up the relevant team’s master rating (For instance, in the diagram above, Manchester Utd have a master rating of 1216)
-In the column next (headered Last 3, Last 6), this shows the ELO points each team have gained/lost in their last 3 and 6 games. A figure highlighted in yellow means that is above average while blue means below average.
-We then add a figure on for home advantage (In the image, taking Manchester Utd`s total figure to 1266), After doing the same for the away side, we then subtract the away sides figure from the home side and that leaves a points difference figure… in the above case, its -25.
-So therefore, Tottenham have 25 ELO points more than Manchester Utd. That would tell me this is a tight game… I would then look for more evidence of this from the rest of the chart.




-I use the Poisson theory to produce goals expectancy figures. The more recent data involved then the more accurate the figures will become.
-By producing attack and defence ratings for each team, this allows me to work out a team’s goals expectancy.
-Home teams attacking rating x The away sides Defence rating x The leagues average home attacking rating is the process for producing a home sides attacking rating.
-We do the same for the away side (away att rat x home def rat x league avg away att rat) and then subtract the away figure from the first, which will give us a supremacy difference (In the image under the heading SUP)
-By adding the figures together, we can also see what the expected total goals figure, which is good for backing over and under goals betting/trading.


On the right hand side are the each team’s performance rankings. This shows where they figure (for and against) for shots on target and conversion rates of those chances. I take these from another chart a produce.
Which looks like this….

-So essentially, what this is showing us is Manchester Utd have so far this season, averaged 6.75 shots on target (Ranked 4th in red) and limited their opponents to 2.25 shots on target (Highlighted in green)
-We can compare this to Tottenham who have managed 6.0 and have a similar 2.25 against, obviously these are away from home.2 very similar attacks and 2 very tight defences will be meeting in this fixture.
-These rankings can work well as it can add or detract from a possible selection, after all ,why would you want back a team that don’t have many shots on target, for instance.

What I Have done recently is colouring in rankings that are very good or very bad.
I have also put all the home sides rankings seperate from the away teams.
The table above shows the rankings in the top 5 are coloured in green while rankings in the bottom 5(16 to 20) are coloured in red.

-Hopefully this explanation will make things clearer for those interested.

-Ideally, I like teams that are superior on ELO`s and also in good recent form then preferably, close to or more than a goal superior on goals expectancy and finally, solid rankings for and against.

Thursday, 21 December 2017

22nd/23rd December

Analysis-Arsenal/Liverpool looks an obvious candidate for goals but you wont get rich at the prices.
Likewise,the games at Swansea and Burnley suggest not many goals will be on the agenda.
Once again,Watford seemed to suggest they look a value play on the figures but they have 2nd worst ELO ratings over the last 3 games and that has to be a worry.

Analysis-Wolves stand out as a strong bet to me.Heavily favoured on ELO ratings compared to Ipswich and rated just about a goal superior on all the goals data.Ipswich are quite clinical in front of goal but are in the bottom 3 for all the other rankings.
Cardiff and Preston seem to be continually underrated by the bookmakers and they both represent decent value this week.
I could never back my own team but Leeds should surely have too much for Hull.

Analysis-Udinese have a lot in their favour against Verona,the away side rank rock bottom of shots on target against them and face a side going quite well at present.
Its difficult to see Sassuolo scoring against Inter,they convert just 0.07% of their shots on target and face a side in the top 3 for both defensive rankings,it is not going to be easy.One goal could be enough for Inter.

Tuesday, 19 December 2017

La Liga 20/23 Dec

Analysis-A few catch my eye here.
Betis and Bilbao should share a few goals with all the goals data showing 3+.
Valencia`s price surprises me a little as they are ahead on ELO ratings and are rated at least a goal superior on the goals figures.
A very close game should be in store between Eibar and Girona.The poisson goals has it exactly level,while none of the other evidence on show suggest anything other than the draw is a big runner.
Getafe have been a little patchy of late but are rated way ahead of Las Palmas,the away side manage to convert just 0.08 shots on goal on average.
I would have Athletico Madrid a lot shorter in their match at Espanyol,the home side are struggling currently and will find it tough to break Madrid down.

Thursday, 14 December 2017

15th-18th December

Championship Analysis-I like Cardiff as one of the strongest bets of the weekend here,well clear on ELO ratings plus first for shots on target against a side that concede for fun.
Wolves and Bristol City both have solid chances while Bolton have the figures on their side in the basement battle against Burton.
Brentford should take care of out of form Barnsley & this game should produce goals.

La Liga Analysis-In a tough set of fixtures to find value,Malaga probably represent the best option,as they have just hit some form and face a side in the bottom 5 of every ranking.
Celta Vigo could edge past Villareal while the Bilbao/Sociedad could be a tight affair.All the goals indicators have this close and none predict over 2 goals.

Premiership Analysis-Crystal Palace have picked up a bit of late but have still yet to find the net on their travels and face an in form Leicester side.Quotes of 10/11 seem decent to me.
Watford appeal on the numbers against Huddersfield although being bottom of the shots on target rankings does put me off a bit.

Serie A Analysis-Sampdoria stand out for me in this set of fixtures.They come out very strong on all 3 of the goals indicators and face a side struggling for form.
Bologna and Juventus looks set for goals(Although mainly from Juve) but the home side are in for at least one goal on all the indicators and that should help any goals bet come up trumps.
Napoli.Roma,AC Milan and Inter Milan look to hold strong chances but are priced accordingly.

Monday, 11 December 2017

Premiership Dec12/13

Added something extra in which may be of interest to those that have been looking at the site.
The section below shows the teams (Shots on Target) Average(For and Against) and their conversion rates(For and Against).
So in the top match,Tottenham average 5.63 shots on target at home & concede 3.63 ,whilst they convert 0.27 of those shots & their opponents convert 0.29 against them.
By combining various pieces of data ,I am able to produce 2 different sets of goals expectancy figures that goes along the poisson goals in the chart above.
I like to have 3 pointing the same way before getting involved.
As an example,Tottenham v Brighton has the highest goals expectancy in the poisson data above but the other 2 charts do not agree,this would make me reluctant about getting involved,

Analysis-There isn`t too much that jumps out here.
Southampton and Leicester looks a draw on all the data above but its not easy getting these draws right.
Watford may be a touch of value but the ELO`s suggest they have just dropped their performance levels a little while Palace are improving.

Friday, 8 December 2017

8th/11th December

Analysis-Huddersfield and Brighton looks sure to be a tight game & playing a draw and low goals markets looks the way to go.
Newcastle and Leicester also looks tight while there looks to be obvious wins for Chelsea,Liverpool and Tottenham.

Analysis-I like wins for Preston,Derby,Forest ,Fulham and Villa.
Goals look to be assured at the  Wolves and Hull games while Norwich and Sheff Wed will be close and Im playing a draw in that.

Analysis-Best bet of the week is Getafe,with odds against looking good value.
Athletico Madrid and Real Sociedad should both win.

Analysis-Obvious wins for Napoli,Roma,Udinese and Lazio...with the last game looking to be a high scoring affair.
I can see Cagliari/Sampdoria being a draw.