Thursday, 31 May 2018


I have been asked to produce something that makes my football ratings easier to understand. I am so used to them now that I assume everybody can see what they mean. Hopefully the following will make things clearer.


-Elo ratings concern the left-hand side of the chart. They use a points distribution system in which before the fixture, the home side put 7% of their total points into a pot along with 5% of the away sides.
-I then produce a match rating, taking into consideration not just the result but also shots and shots on target. Depending on the match rating, a mathematical equation then produces a new set of numbers, which will then make up the relevant team’s master rating (For instance, in the diagram above, Manchester Utd have a master rating of 1216)
-In the column next (headered Last 3, Last 6), this shows the ELO points each team have gained/lost in their last 3 and 6 games. A figure highlighted in yellow means that is above average while blue means below average.
-We then add a figure on for home advantage (In the image, taking Manchester Utd`s total figure to 1266), After doing the same for the away side, we then subtract the away sides figure from the home side and that leaves a points difference figure… in the above case, its -25.
-So therefore, Tottenham have 25 ELO points more than Manchester Utd. That would tell me this is a tight game… I would then look for more evidence of this from the rest of the chart.




-I use the Poisson theory to produce goals expectancy figures. The more recent data involved then the more accurate the figures will become.
-By producing attack and defence ratings for each team, this allows me to work out a team’s goals expectancy.
-Home teams attacking rating x The away sides Defence rating x The leagues average home attacking rating is the process for producing a home sides attacking rating.
-We do the same for the away side (away att rat x home def rat x league avg away att rat) and then subtract the away figure from the first, which will give us a supremacy difference (In the image under the heading SUP)
-By adding the figures together, we can also see what the expected total goals figure, which is good for backing over and under goals betting/trading.


On the right hand side are the each team’s performance rankings. This shows where they figure (for and against) for shots on target and conversion rates of those chances. I take these from another chart a produce.
Which looks like this….

-So essentially, what this is showing us is Manchester Utd have so far this season, averaged 6.75 shots on target (Ranked 4th in red) and limited their opponents to 2.25 shots on target (Highlighted in green)
-We can compare this to Tottenham who have managed 6.0 and have a similar 2.25 against, obviously these are away from home.2 very similar attacks and 2 very tight defences will be meeting in this fixture.
-These rankings can work well as it can add or detract from a possible selection, after all ,why would you want back a team that don’t have many shots on target, for instance.

What I Have done recently is colouring in rankings that are very good or very bad.
I have also put all the home sides rankings seperate from the away teams.
The table above shows the rankings in the top 5 are coloured in green while rankings in the bottom 5(16 to 20) are coloured in red.

-Hopefully this explanation will make things clearer for those interested.

-Ideally, I like teams that are superior on ELO`s and also in good recent form then preferably, close to or more than a goal superior on goals expectancy and finally, solid rankings for and against.

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