Monday, 11 December 2017
Added something extra in which may be of interest to those that have been looking at the site.
The section below shows the teams (Shots on Target) Average(For and Against) and their conversion rates(For and Against).
So in the top match,Tottenham average 5.63 shots on target at home & concede 3.63 ,whilst they convert 0.27 of those shots & their opponents convert 0.29 against them.
By combining various pieces of data ,I am able to produce 2 different sets of goals expectancy figures that goes along the poisson goals in the chart above.
I like to have 3 pointing the same way before getting involved.
As an example,Tottenham v Brighton has the highest goals expectancy in the poisson data above but the other 2 charts do not agree,this would make me reluctant about getting involved,
Analysis-There isn`t too much that jumps out here.
Southampton and Leicester looks a draw on all the data above but its not easy getting these draws right.
Watford may be a touch of value but the ELO`s suggest they have just dropped their performance levels a little while Palace are improving.