Monday, 30 October 2017

Championship Oct31

Analysis- Fulham/Bristol City looks likely to have goals but both the overs and BTTS markets are pretty tight....
Barnsley appeal as a bit of value away to Burton, they have the edge on ELO`s & goals expectancy plus they have the 5th best attack for shots on target away from home. Up against a defence that generally struggles, I am surprised they aren`t favs.
Brentford`s price also surprises me but this is a game that I do not see many goals.Birmingham have the worst record in the division for shots on target at home but also have the best record for not conceding chances against them, therefore I would be worried backing them although maybe trading a 0-1 scoreline, may pay dividends.
Sheff Wed /Millwall looks destined to be a tight affair with few goals around.Millwall have the worst conversion rate away from home but combine that with the best defensive conversion record, the home side have a goals expectancy of just 0.9 and the unders market looks fair value.
Hull have the best records for shots on target and for converting them but sit in the lower half for stopping their opponents doing the same and with Middlesbrough in the top 6 for SOT ,then BTTS looks a solid bet,with the goals expectancy backing this up.

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